BCSNN — No. 3 Notre Dame has opened the 2026 season with the type of dominance expected from a College Football Playoff contender. After dismantling Wisconsin 41-13 in Week 1 and shutting out Rice 52-0 last weekend, the Irish return home Saturday night for their toughest test yet - a 7:30 p.m. EST matchup with undefeated Michigan State.

The Spartans arrive at Notre Dame Stadium with a 2-0 record following wins over Toledo and Eastern Michigan. While Michigan State has yet to face a ranked opponent, the program has shown early signs of stability under quarterback Alessio Milivojevic, who has completed more than 70 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions through two games.

Milivojevic’s efficiency will be tested against a Notre Dame defense ranked No. 32 nationally in EPA/play, a unit that has allowed just 13 points all season and overwhelmed both Wisconsin and Rice with depth, speed and physicality. The Irish have been particularly strong on early downs, ranking 23rd in early‑down EPA/play, a metric that has fueled their ability to control game flow.

Notre Dame’s offense has been equally sharp behind Heisman candidate C.J. Carr, who has completed 71.4 percent of his passes for 492 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. Carr threw four scores against Rice while completing 80 percent of his attempts, continuing a trend of efficiency that has made him one of the nation’s most reliable passers.

Oddsmakers have taken notice. Notre Dame enters as a nearly 30‑point favorite, reflecting both the Irish’s dominance and Michigan State’s limited résumé. The Spartans rank 31st in defensive success rate against the pass, but those numbers were built against Toledo and Eastern Michigan - not against a quarterback of Carr’s caliber.

Michigan State’s best chance to stay competitive lies on the ground. UConn transfer Cam Edwards has provided early spark to the Spartans’ rushing attack, running behind a veteran offensive line anchored by senior guard Conner Moore. Establishing physicality early will be essential for Michigan State, both to shorten the game and to keep Carr and the Irish offense off the field.

The Spartans’ hope is to control tempo and create manageable third downs. Edwards has shown the ability to break early chunk plays, and Notre Dame’s defense has occasionally allowed early rhythm before tightening as games progress. A slower start from the Irish is possible, especially if Michigan State’s offensive line can generate movement in the first quarter.

But sustaining that success for four quarters is another matter. Notre Dame’s front seven - led by defensive tackle Francis Brewu, linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu‑Asa, and edge rushers Boubacar Traore, Bryce Young, and Keon Keeley - has overwhelmed opponents with depth and rotational strength. Brewu is expected to be a disruptive force inside, while Viliamu‑Asa’s return last week against Rice added another layer of explosiveness to the Irish defense.

Michigan State’s rushing metrics suggest trouble ahead. The Spartans rank 112th nationally in EPA/rush, a sign that their ground game has struggled to generate consistent efficiency despite Edwards’ flashes. If Michigan State becomes one‑dimensional, Notre Dame’s pass rush could take over quickly.

Offensively, Notre Dame will look to jumpstart its own run game after a quieter outing against Rice. Junior running back Aneyas Williams, Nolan James Jr., and Jonaz Walton are expected to see early touches as offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock aims to establish balance. The Irish have yet to produce a signature rushing performance in 2026, but Saturday presents an opportunity to surpass 200 yards on the ground against a Michigan State defense ranked 60th in EPA/pass and still searching for consistency.

If Notre Dame’s run game finds traction, Carr’s play‑action opportunities could create explosive plays downfield - a weekly staple of the Irish offense. Michigan State allowed 20 points to Toledo in Week 1 and has yet to face a passing attack with Notre Dame’s precision.

The matchup sets up for a competitive first quarter, followed by gradual separation as Notre Dame’s depth asserts itself. The Irish have covered the spread in both games this season, winning by 28 and 52 points, and their defensive front has shown the ability to wear down opponents as games progress.

Against a stronger opponent than Rice, the margin may be smaller - but the trajectory remains similar. Notre Dame’s talent, depth and quarterback play give the Irish a clear path to a comfortable victory.